An Assassination Attempt: An Attack on Democracy
It’s time to cool it down.
Joe Biden
Saturday’s attempt to assassinate Donald Trump was effectively an attack on democracy, and that is about as ugly as it gets. Whether you sympathise with Trump’s political views or not, democracy entitles him to have a shot at power (no pun intended), and if the majority of Americans decide that he is the best candidate to lead the nation, so be it. Nobody has any right to take matters into his (or her) own hands.
The big question
The big question now is how it will affect the outcome of the elections in November, and we think this incident has made it even more likely that Trump will return to the White House next January. In our opinion, about the only development that can possibly change that outcome is if Biden finally gives in and retires his candidacy, but time is against that happening. The Democratic national convention is scheduled for August 19-22, i.e. only five weeks from now, and that is the last chance for the Democrats to choose another candidate. Moreover, given the limited amount of time for a potential new candidate to be ‘marketed’, even if they choose to do so, Trump remains our clear favourite to win in November.
Should Trump return to the White House, financial markets will probably do okay, generally speaking, but the green agenda could come under severe pressure as a result. Events over the last few days could therefore force us to make adjustments to our portfolio which is quite ‘climate heavy’. That said, the climate crisis doesn’t go away just because Trump is in power again, but the attempt on his life has certainly given us a lot to think about.
It is still early days. We don’t even know what the true motive was, and a lot can happen over the next week or two. The air is already thick of all sorts of conspiracy theories, most of which are so far out that you can only laugh. Having said that, the market reaction will depend on the nature of the full and undiluted story.
Wishful thinking?
Let me try and finish this sour note with a somewhat more optimistic observation, In Denmark, where I spend most of my time, political opponents still talk to each other, even if they are deeply divided, politically speaking. As we all know, in the US they don’t, but I hope this incident could bring some sanity back. Whether you vote D or R, it is no nobody’s interest that democracy is under attack (apart from maybe Putin), and Saturday’s assassination attempt might be the wake-up call that could change things for the better.
Niels
15 July 2024
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