Superior investment results require that you deviate from the norm. In our monthly Absolute Return Letter we discuss key macro topics. Subscribers get it straight to their inbox about 1o times a year.
Oil Price Target: $0 (by 2050)
‘Everything’ continues to decline – GDP growth, productivity growth, real wage growth, inflation, etc., and the Absolute Return Letter this month is dedicated to exploring energy’s role in this conundrum. We conclude that, unless mankind can come up with a cheaper energy form, GDP growth will ultimately turn negative. The only good news is that there is indeed a solution on the way, even if it is still many years away. The solution is not renewable energy, as you might suspect, but a technology called fusion energy.
When investing, investment rules ensure long term success. I would even go as far as to suggest that those who don’t follow certain rules, i.e. they invest more opportunistically, are bound to run into trouble sooner or later, but much more about that, and what my rules and principles are, in this month’s Absolute Return Letter.
The truth about Brexit
UK politicians are not telling the full truth about Brexit. Why? Most likely because it is not in their interest to do so. UK exports to the EU are far more important to the UK economy than vice versa, and a substantial number of UK jobs could be at risk, should the free trade agreement go up in smoke. And that is only one of several issues our political leaders are concealing.
A Note on Inflation: Is it here or isn’t it?
Is inflation finally coming back? There are certainly signs that it is – at least in some countries – and it appears that both central bankers and investors have already picked up the early signs. We argue why investors should worry more about the US and UK and less about the Eurozone, where higher inflation more recently is all non-core. Across Europe, in the longer term, we believe deflation is still a much bigger risk than inflation.
Who Really Knows? An Open Letter to Howard Marks
This month’s Absolute Return Letter is a follow-up to last month’s letter. In January I argued why investors could be facing a much more hostile Fed this year than generally perceived, and this month we look at the implications of that; why beta risk should be de-emphasised in 2017, and where we spot better opportunities.
Hiccup of the year?
As we always do in January, we focus on the investment minefield laid out in front of us, and we argue that, with upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany, this year could turn into a rather tricky one for investors. That said, there are plenty of other things to worry about.
A lesson in microeconomics – how to get the economy going again
There is macroeconomics, and there is microeconomics. Macroeconomics have failed miserably in recent years, and it is time to approach things differently. If you can find ways to stimulate demand more than supply, you will almost certainly see a re-acceleration in economic growth.
Trump – another Brexit moment?
We are now only about a week away from finding out if the Americans are about to have their own Brexit moment – a president nobody thought stood a chance only a short while ago with all the consequences that implies. The anti-establishment emotions in the US are no less pronounced than they were in the UK leading up to the EU referendum, so anything is possible. Even if Hilary Clinton wins, as most expect her to, the road in front of us is not at all straightforward.