Superior investment results require that you deviate from the norm. In our monthly Absolute Return Letter we discuss key macro topics. Subscribers get it straight to their inbox about 1o times a year.
Five Lessons from History (3/5)
Whilst simple logic may tell you that something is not sustainable, what is unsustainable today may be more unsustainable tomorrow. It is never easy to establish when the bubble will burst and, over the years, I have witnessed some great guys losing their jobs because they stuck to their principles. It was just a little too early to sell!
The Economic Cost of Social Distancing
The economic costs associated with the coronavirus case outbreak are nothing short of staggering. Expect Q2 to collapse which is not good for equities and not good for bonds either. Here is why.
Five Lessons from History (2/5)
Mean reversion happens more often than not, but the risk of it happening is frequently ignored by investors, as they get carried away when prices only go one way. The most powerful example of mean reversion that we have seen over the last 30 years is the dotcom boom and bust that unfolded in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Five Lessons from History (1/5)
Financial hardship often drive people to adopt views that were previously unthinkable. It is a very powerful behavioural pattern and has significant implications for financial markets. In this month’s Absolute Return Letter, we take a closer look at what it really means.
The Known Unknowns of 2020
Trump’s decision to take out the Islamic Republic’s most celebrated military leader, Qassem Soleimani, was a timely reminder that we face many problems. An armed conflict between the US and Iran is clearly one of them but far from the only one. Here is a list of the ones we worry mostly about, going into 2020.
A Future Embedded in the Present
We have reached a stage in the cycle where you need to think out of the box in order to deliver respectable returns. Investing like most of us have done in the great bull market will not deliver returns anywhere near the levels we have enjoyed over the past 35-40 years. This month’s Absolute Return Letter offers a solution.
How to invest in a low growth world (Part 2 of 2)
The evidence is overwhelming that automation has positively impacted total factor productivity (TFP) for years. In other words, as the second wave of the digital revolution unfolds, a shrinking workforce may not have as big a negative impact on GDP growth as one would otherwise expect.
How to invest in a low growth world (Part 1 of 2)
A classic approach to economic theory suggests low GDP growth in the years to come. Why and what to do about it is what this month’s Letter is about. Next month, we’ll look at the impact of advanced robotics – why a rapidly ageing workforce might not be the problem it is often portrayed as. Could robots simply replace humans in the work process?