Superior investment results require that you deviate from the norm. In our monthly Absolute Return Letter we discuss key macro topics. Subscribers get it straight to their inbox about 1o times a year.
Five Lessons from History (5/5)
Wounds heal but scars last. That’s an old lesson from history and will also be the case as far as COVID-19 is concerned. Evidence from China shows that consumers are in no rush to come back on the streets of big cities, and why this differ elsewhere? The consumer-driven part of the global economy could run at reduced power for considerably longer.
Five Lessons from History (4/5)
Why is it that a fire on the other side of the planet attracts far more attention than a new innovation about to be rolled out, and how can investors take advantage of that? This is a question more relevant than ever, given the impact of the current Covid-19 outbreak.
Five Lessons from History (3/5)
Whilst simple logic may tell you that something is not sustainable, what is unsustainable today may be more unsustainable tomorrow. It is never easy to establish when the bubble will burst and, over the years, I have witnessed some great guys losing their jobs because they stuck to their principles. It was just a little too early to sell!
The Economic Cost of Social Distancing
The economic costs associated with the coronavirus case outbreak are nothing short of staggering. Expect Q2 to collapse which is not good for equities and not good for bonds either. Here is why.
Five Lessons from History (2/5)
Mean reversion happens more often than not, but the risk of it happening is frequently ignored by investors, as they get carried away when prices only go one way. The most powerful example of mean reversion that we have seen over the last 30 years is the dotcom boom and bust that unfolded in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Five Lessons from History (1/5)
Financial hardship often drive people to adopt views that were previously unthinkable. It is a very powerful behavioural pattern and has significant implications for financial markets. In this month’s Absolute Return Letter, we take a closer look at what it really means.
The Known Unknowns of 2020
Trump’s decision to take out the Islamic Republic’s most celebrated military leader, Qassem Soleimani, was a timely reminder that we face many problems. An armed conflict between the US and Iran is clearly one of them but far from the only one. Here is a list of the ones we worry mostly about, going into 2020.