Superior investment results require that you deviate from the norm. In our monthly Absolute Return Letter (ARL) we share our out-of-the-box macro view of the world and corresponding megatrends. Subscribers get the letter straight to their inbox about 1o times a year.
The first proper digital currency has arrived
In an increasingly digitised world, is Bitcoin the future, or should we wait for Govcoin to be rolled out? We think the answer to that question is quite simple for all the reasons discussed in the Absolute Return Letter this month. Have a great summer!
Supercycle or not?
Why commodity markets have done so exceptionally well
In a global economy ravaged by COVID-19, how is it possible that commodities go from strength to strength? Is it about Bidens’s massive spending programme? Is it about rising living standards in many emerging markets? Or, is it simply about investors wanting to protect inflation risk?
The Year of Living Dangerously
How to structure your portfolio when interest rates are rising
Interest rates continue to climb as investors worry about the inflationary impact of Biden’s big spending plans for 2021-2022, but how are equities likely to perform in such an environment? Three possible scenarios are lining up – one good and two not so good for equities.
Why investments must be boosted but also why society may not be able to afford it
Governments need to spend a great deal of money to upgrade the infrastructure, partly because it is dilapidated and needs to be upgraded to 21st century standards and partly because a limping economy could do with some job creation; however, the dilemma is that we can hardly afford to spend all the money that is required, so what do we do?
The Global Economy Post COVID-19
A V-shaped economic recovery is in the cards for later this year, but for it to be sustainable, we need to change one or two things. One simply cannot assume that a vanilla approach to managing the economy out of the current mess will do the trick, and I will argue that only those countries which are prepared to think out-of-the-box are likely to s
Will Brexit Lead to Bruin?
The Cost of Absurdity
The UK-EU trade agreement entered into just before Christmas is a 1,200-page monster which contains far more cons than pros for the British economy despite Boris Johnson doing his very best to convince the British public of the opposite. In this month’s Absolute Return Letter, you can see why.
V for Vaccine?
What should you worry most about this year? In one word: COVID! There are many risks attached to the vaccine programme. Take for example the risk of rising inflation which is probably not the first thing you think of after all the economic damage COVID-19 caused in 2020. In this month’s ARL, l will explain why COVID could lead to rising inflation.
The Zombies Are Coming
Zombies are firms that are neither dead or alive. They are in so much debt that virtually all their free cash is used to service their debt, and that is very damaging to GDP growth. This month, we explain why there are more and more zombies all over the world, and why they do immense damage to the global economy.