Superior investment results require that you deviate from the norm. In our monthly Absolute Return Letter (ARL) we share our out-of-the-box macro view of the world and corresponding megatrends. Subscribers get the letter straight to their inbox about 1o times a year.
What are the implications when capital market returns outstrip economic growth?
Wealth (r) cannot grow faster than GDP (g) longer-term. Why that is will be explained in this month’s Absolute Return Letter. When it happens, wealthier households enjoy high rates of returns relative to economic growth, while the opposite is the case for poorer households. In other words, inequality worsens.
Why Much Wealth Must Be Confiscated
Wealth has risen excessively in recent years and, now, inflation has started to rise as well. Why those two stories are two sides of the same coin, and why much of the growth in wealth must be confiscated again is what this month’s Absolute Return Letter is about.
The Healthcare (R)evolution
Healthcare spending is growing rapidly, partially as a result of changing demographics and partially because of new, and expensive, treatment forms. At first glance, it looks like a phenomenal investment opportunity, but can society actually afford the rising cost of it? That is what this month’s Absolute Return Letter is about.
The first proper digital currency has arrived
In an increasingly digitised world, is Bitcoin the future, or should we wait for Govcoin to be rolled out? We think the answer to that question is quite simple for all the reasons discussed in the Absolute Return Letter this month. Have a great summer!
Supercycle or not?
Why commodity markets have done so exceptionally well
In a global economy ravaged by COVID-19, how is it possible that commodities go from strength to strength? Is it about Bidens’s massive spending programme? Is it about rising living standards in many emerging markets? Or, is it simply about investors wanting to protect inflation risk?
The Year of Living Dangerously
How to structure your portfolio when interest rates are rising
Interest rates continue to climb as investors worry about the inflationary impact of Biden’s big spending plans for 2021-2022, but how are equities likely to perform in such an environment? Three possible scenarios are lining up – one good and two not so good for equities.
Why investments must be boosted but also why society may not be able to afford it
Governments need to spend a great deal of money to upgrade the infrastructure, partly because it is dilapidated and needs to be upgraded to 21st century standards and partly because a limping economy could do with some job creation; however, the dilemma is that we can hardly afford to spend all the money that is required, so what do we do?
The Global Economy Post COVID-19
A V-shaped economic recovery is in the cards for later this year, but for it to be sustainable, we need to change one or two things. One simply cannot assume that a vanilla approach to managing the economy out of the current mess will do the trick, and I will argue that only those countries which are prepared to think out-of-the-box are likely to s