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The Absolute Return Letter

Superior investment results require that you deviate from the norm. In our monthly Absolute Return Letter we discuss key macro topics. Subscribers get it straight to their inbox about 1o times a year.

Hiccup of the year?
With upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany, the year ahead could turn into a rather tricky one for investors.
Who Really Knows? An Open Letter to Howard Marks
Why beta risk should be de-emphasised in 2017, and where we spot better opportunities.
A Note on Inflation: Is it here or isn’t it?
Is inflation finally coming back? There are certainly signs that it is, at least in some countries.
The truth about Brexit
UK exports to the EU, and therefore UK jobs, could be at risk. This is one of several issues our political leaders are concealing.
2016
The Biggest Stories of 2016?
Three stories that are likely to make the front pages in 2016, and their implications should any of them unfold.
A Frail New World
Why is the outlook for GDP growth and for returns on risk assets uninspiring? Demographics is one of (at least) four factors.
If only we could blame China
What is behind the steep fall in commodity prices? There are more likely causes than the economic slowdown in China.
A Different Take on Brexit
The result of the debate is likely to be important for you and, like most things in life, the choices aren't black and white.
Abnormalities in the New Normal
The impact ‘abnormalities’ (investment dynamics) that are behaving very differently post the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Is the Fed behind the curve?
Looking to US: Is the Federal Reserve Bank too inactive, potentially leading to much more significant inflation down the road?
Thinking outside the box
Major factors are driving inflation down. If no action is taken, the implication will be outright deflation and falling GDP.
Brexit Special: The Empire Strikes Back(wards)
At ARP, we have had many inquiries about Brexit. As a consequence, we have decided to do a one-off Brexit Special.
Increase Returns at No Added Risk
Returns on most asset classes continue to disappoint. What can you do to raise overall return levels? Think outside the box.
The New Normal, Mk.II
GDP growth continues to disappoint – but we calculate GDP incorrectly!
Trump – another Brexit moment?
The anti-establishment emotions in the US are no less pronounced than in the UK with the Brexit vote, so anything is possible.
A lesson in microeconomics – how to get the economy going again
Macroeconomics have failed miserably in recent years, and it is time to approach things differently.
2015
Pie in the Sky?
January each year brings a host of 'pie in the sky' forecasts. We instead focus on structural trends when analysing the future.
The End Game
A closer look at a number of ‘end games’. The most likely outcome is a continuation of the slow growth we're currently have.
Tigers in Africa
We discuss unrealistic expectations, like equity returns in the double digit range, or central banks printing money.
The 'Perfect Storm'
It is unlikely that the circumstances that created the exceptional equity performance during the last 35 years will be repeated.
How to dress for a rainy day
The art of portfolio construction in a low return environment; in other words, where are the right – and wrong – places to be?
Are bond investors crying wolf?
There has been quite a dramatic increase in interest rates in most markets. Is the beginning of something much bigger?
A return to fundamentals?
Financial markets have behaved oddly since the near meltdown in 2008. Are finally beginning to see some sort of normalisation?
Doodles from an eventful summer
We look at recent incidents impacting financial markets, discussing the Chinese slowing economy + the Euro zone and US situations.
The Real Burden of Low Interest Rates
Interest rates are likely to stay low for many years to come. What damage can very low interest rates do?
Should FIFAA Be Red-Carded?
We take a closer look at portfolio construction in a difficult environment.
The Next Driver of Productivity
Lessons learned from the financial crisis, the impact of poor demographics, and the next major driver of productivity growth.