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ARP+ Insights

Here, our research team sheds light on investment opportunities and strategies, along with sharing our thoughts on current events and developments that have implications for our strategies.

Featured
Research
TFP vis-à-vis Labour Productivity - why TFP is the best measure of productivity in the digital age
Economists operate with two measures of productivity – labour productivity and total factor productivity. The two are sometimes used more or less interchangeably, seemingly without people realising they are actually quite different.
Research
Beta vis-à-vis Correlation Coefficients - how the two measures differ
Beta and correlation are important indicators for assets, but are often confused with each other.
Strategy
Regulatory Capital Relief
Regulatory Capital Relief is an investment strategy whereby non-bank investors underwrite losses on portfolios of bank loans, in return for a coupon linked to the bank’s cost of capital.
Research
The Biggest Opportunity of a Lifetime?
A new generation has been ‘born’ - the Selfie Generation - and they continue to have a rather dramatic impact on financial markets, but that is an opportunity for all those not obsessed with taking pictures of themselves.
Opinion
Investment Rules: Pick your moments to be contrarian
Too often investors, in time of success, like to be considered contrarian. It’s the appeal of being a successful maverick, on hindsight.
Opinion
Investment Rules: Don’t stick to your principles
Let me give you a very simple example why my investment principles change subject to the environment we are in.
Research
Gold: Hedge, safe-haven or just a malleable mineral?
Considered undisputed by some as to its allure and perceived intrinsic value, gold has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on economic, cultural and environmental values.
Research
A note on Wicksell
A note on Johan Gustaf Knut Wicksell, the most famous Swedish economist of all time.
Opinion
Passively active risk
The significant flow of funds from active to passive mandates implies a risk that is not widely understood. Passive equity funds pay no attention whatsoever to valuations.
Opinion
Why bother with profit to make money
These days more and more companies – particularly in the U.S. – are run for volume rather than profit.
Opinion
Innovation ≠ Productivity
Today’s innovations are not likely to have nearly the same impact on productivity as, say, the car had on the productivity of our parents.
Research
Is the Fed behind the curve? (Part 2)
This is part 2 of the report series: 'Is the Fed behind the curve?'
Opinion
Does demographics matter to long-term equity returns?
Several studies confirm what we already know intuitively. Middle-aged adults are important drivers of capital market returns.
Research
Is the Fed behind the curve? (Part 1)
Is the US economy booming? If so, is the Federal Reserve Bank falling behind the curve?
Research
Renewable Energy
The IEA recently reported that in 2015, for the first time ever, renewables passed coal as the world’s biggest source of electricity generation, and the rising use of wind and solar is no longer confined to the developed world.
Strategy
Investing in Secondaries
Investing in secondary opportunities in the alternative space is a growing investment opportunity.
Research
Slowing Global Trade - How it could affect a number of alternative strategies
Global trade is slowing, and as a driver of growth in global GDP, this will have implications on a number of alternative investment strategies.
Research
Agriculture & Water Rights
According to at least one estimate, mankind is facing a formidable challenge in the years to come. Between now and 2050, we will need to produce more food than we have done in the previous 10,000 years put together.
Research
A different approach to asset allocation - how to perform in a low return environment
Are there any inefficiencies in the New Normal that one can take advantage of which will drive returns higher and make a successful outcome more likely?
Research
A declining workforce and its impact on inflation
We all seem to think that ageing can only lead to lower inflation, all other things being equal, as older people consume considerably less than younger people do. What if we are all wrong?
Research
Why the next bull market in oil is not so straightforward
When the price of oil drops from $115 to under $30 in only 18 months, as Brent oil did between June 2014 and January 2016, and subsequently rises to $45, I can fully understand why a bull market ethos is building.
Research
Thoughts on (dis)inflation
The first two months of 2016 were all about deflation, but that has since changed. In the last four weeks, the word on Wall Street is that inflation is coming back.
Research
The Link … (Part 2)
The second part of the Link between Demographics, Inflation, Consumer Spending and Equity Returns, this paper will look into which investment strategies I expect to be the most rewarding, given the demographic picture laid out in front of us.
Research
The Link between Demographics, Inflation, Consumer Spending and Equity Returns
The purpose of this research paper is to provide more detailed information of how spending patterns change as populations age. This knowledge can hopefully be used to the advantage of our clients when we engage in portfolio construction.
Research
The Real Reasons Why GDP Growth Is Subdued and Will Remain So
China and the aftermath of the financial crisis are the pundits’ two favourite explanations as to why global GDP growth has been relatively sluggish recently.
Research
A Further Update on Oil
This research paper is an extension of the oil paper we wrote back in July (see Paradigm Shifts in Oil dated 14 July 2015); however, the two can be read independently of each other.
Research
The Credit Impulse Explained
We received many inquiries as to what the credit impulse really is, and how the data should be interpreted. This paper will address those issues.
Research
Consumer Brand Licensing
Brand licensing is a rapidly growing industry, with the top 150 licensors accounting for almost $252 billion in global retail sales in 2013.
Research
Natural Gas Dynamics
This research paper is an extension of an earlier research paper on oil (see Paradigm Shifts in Oil, dated 14 July, 2015). Whereas the earlier paper looked at the global oil price outlook, this paper will focus on natural gas prices.
Research
The Credit Impulse Weakens
The research paper will define a relatively new economic term – credit impulse – and explain why it suggests that an economic downturn is around the corner.
Research
Paradigm Shifts in Global Oil Markets
The objective of this research paper is to assess future expected levels of oil price volatility, given the paradigm shifts in the global oil industry, and secondly to evaluate which types of energy strategies that are likely to perform the best.
Research
The Implications of Risk On, Risk Off on Portfolio Construction
The ultimate objective of this research paper is to identify the liquid alternative investment strategies which are most likely to deliver uncorrelated returns vis-à-vis global equities and thus work as an effective diversifier in the near future.
Research
Aviation cyclicality
Whilst widely recognised that the aviation industry in general is a cyclical industry, how cyclical is aircraft leasing?