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ARP+ Insights

Here, our research team sheds light on investment opportunities and strategies, along with sharing our thoughts on current events and developments that have implications for our strategies.

The US Senate Bans Imports of Enriched Uranium from Russia
The US Senate voted yesterday evening to ban imports of enriched uranium from Russia. What does this mean for the broader uranium market?
Ceramic Heat Dissipation Substrates
an alternative to water-based cooling systems
Data centres require enormous amounts of water for their cooling systems, and an alternative is desperately required. Here is one.
Out-of-Control Public Deficits
Worldwide, government debt-to-GDP is now nearly 100%, and governments seem not to care. Should you?
Demise of the DM Growth Model
Three megatrends have a negative impact on GDP growth, leading us to expect lower returns than we have enjoyed in recent years.
Some Thoughts on Productivity Growth
and the Investment Implications
Productivity growth is falling short of expectations in many countries. When combined with a problematic demographic outlook, it spells little or no economic growth, and you’ll need to approach portfolio construction quite differently.
Project Ignition
the Main Risk to the Uranium Bull Story
Uranium has been on an incredible run and it seems like there is no stopping it. But will the development of fusion energy pose a threat to the uranium bull story?
Healthcare in Election Years
A Hot Potato?
Healthcare stocks almost always underperform the broader market in presidential election years. Is it going to happen this year too?
Clickbait Galore
Are we being told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about climate change? No, so help us God.
The Importance of Virtual Water
There is more to the water story than meets the eye
Water supplies are dwindling, yet more water is used every day. A new approach to water management shall therefore be required.
The End of the Lithium Bull Market?
Lithium is the greenest of all green metals and is in great demand, so one wonders why lithium prices are so weak. Read here why.
A Few Facts about the Changing Climate
The planet is 4.5 billion years old and the climate system far more complex than you are led to believe. One can therefore argue that thinking we can fix everything by reducing carbon dioxide emission levels is probably a tad naïve.
Another (Timely) Update on Uranium
Extreme weather over the summer has raised the red flag, and nuclear energy could end up as the big winner, if our political leaders mean it seriously when they say they want to phase out fossil fuels, but are they serious?
The End of Indexing?
We no longer believe investing passively is a winning strategy. What worked so well in the raging bull market of yesteryear is now struggling to beat active investing, and it is all about the type of market we are in. We suggest you read on…
Is AI the seventh wonder of the world? Will it effectively address the growing shortage of workers everywhere, or does it spell the end of the human race? However, one thing is given – AI will accelerate the rate of economic growth.
The Future Belongs to Graphene
Graphene, a groundbreaking 2D material, promises numerous scientific advancements. Initial breakthroughs include enhancing lithium-ion batteries for significant smartphone and electric car performance improvements. But there's much more to come.
How DLE will Change the Lithium Industry
DLE is a new lithium extraction method which will affect the lithium industry dramatically in the years to come. The new technology cannot be adopted by mining companies, though. Therefore, lithium miners could struggle to compete longer term.
Is It Time to Turn Bullish?
Our negative views on equities are being moderated, as the ongoing slowdown may actually not turn into a full-blown recession.
The Future Belongs to Green Hydrogen
The production of green hydrogen will be ramping up fast over the next few years, particularly in the US. Between green hydrogen and lithium-ion batteries, we are not that many years away from being able to bin fossil fuels completely.
Why Megatrend Investing is a Winning Formula
Investing thematically is very different from conventional investing. As a result, you often end up with a portfolio that looks very different, but that is likely to work in your favour over time. Here is why.
Why Commodities May Defy the Odds in 2023
Could commodity prices, despite a soft economic outlook, go higher this year? Yes, and I can think of at least five reasons why commodities may perform better than what economic fundamentals in Europe and the US would suggest.
Why Wealth-to-GDP Must Mean-Revert
Years of asset price inflation has driven wealth-to-GDP to unsustainable levels, and a drop in wealth is due. There is a macroeconomic reason why that is but, as you will see, there is also a microeconomic reason why wealth-to- GDP is due a reset.
Cryptocurrencies Unplugged
Bitcoin is down ca. 75% from its all-time high and almost 50% from the level it was at when we first wrote about cryptocurrencies in early 2021. Is the party truly over, or is this a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pick it up very cheaply?
The Future of Carbon Capture
Could a few, new technologies change the climate outlook?
COP27 ended with an agreement, but not one that will do the climate any good. We are therefore dependant on new technologies to fix what appears to be an unfixable problem. Fortunately, a set of new technologies, eg. CCS, CCUS & DAC, are underway.
Banks to Come Back into Fashion
With interest rates rising higher and faster than expected, there is understandably a lot of concern in financial markets. However, will banks see a direct uplift to profits through higher rates…and will this translate to higher share prices?
Conclusions or No Conclusions from China's NPC
China’s 20th National People’s Congress took place towards the end of October and President Xi secured his third term. There were many other points that were discussed, but what are the main conclusions that investors should be taking away from this?
The End of the Private Equity Era?
Why the ongoing regime change will also affect PE returns
PE has returned 14.3% annually over the past 25 years, outperforming pretty much every other asset class. Can that continue?
The Implications of Declining Wealth-to-GDP
Wealth has grown faster than GDP for the past 20 years but cannot do so in the long run. Therefore, investment implications are serious, particularly if you are a US investor, as US wealth is more out of line than wealth in the rest of the world.
Gilt Gyrations
In the UK, the Chancellor’s mini budget on Friday 23rd September, created turbulence in the gilts and sterling markets. The Bank of England stepped in and stabilised these markets, but how does this affect its credibility and can this stability last?
Nuclear 2.0 & 3.0
Fossil fuels will be with us for many years unless we are prepared to expand nuclear. In this paper, I argue why there are many good reasons to do precisely that and how to take advantage from an investment point of view. Read on to learn more.
The Sustainability of Food
The World Food Programme reports that more than 1 in 9 people go hungry every day. The food and agricultural industry is also a massive contributor to global emissions. The rise in sustainability will boost a wide range of investment opportunities.
The Future of Food Prices
Food prices spiked a great deal in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite seeing easing prices over the last few months, we believe that the supply and demand dynamics of agricultural commodities points to elevated prices.
The Unsustainability Discount in Real Estate
The real estate landscape is due for a significant change given the greater focus on ESG and decarbonisation. Unsustainable assets will take a hit on valuations, returns and future sale prospects. This means investors must act now.
Swimming in Troubled Waters
The mix of freshwater scarcity and rising seawater levels is a great challenge facing society today and desalination is not the solution. In this paper, I will look at more sustainable solutions, and I will assess how you best invest in water.
From Liquidity to Fundamentals
Equity investors have benefitted from exceptionally benign liquidity conditions in recent years, but the party is over. Economic fundamentals are taking charge, and you should worry, because a recession is looming and the outlook is dire.
The Downfall of the Doomsday Prophets
Why the global population will never reach 10 billion
In this paper, I will argue that fears regarding overpopulation ignore some simple facts which will turn population growth into population decline much earlier than predicted by the UN today, and I will assess the investment implications thereof.
Responsible Investing at Absolute Return Partners
Find out about our approach towards Responsible Investing here at Absolute Return Partners.
Update on Investing in Secondaries
The landscape for investing in private equity secondaries has developed significantly from where it was in November 2016, when we wrote our last paper on the topic. As a result an update on this investment opportunity was due.
Lithium-Ion Batteries or Hydrogen Fuel Cells?
Thoughts on How to Play This Theme
As the demand for energy continues to rise globally and governments around the world try to control global warming, the debate between whether lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen energy will prevail is an important one to follow.
A Global Recession? Why the probability of a Worldwide Economic Contraction Is Rising
The presentation attached is a presentation I gave to the IC of a UK wealth management firm earlier today. As you can see, I believe the probability of a global recession has risen as a result of the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
Upcoming infrastructure
Infrastructure is an asset class which typically performs well in times of high inflation and often contributes to the transition towards a green economy. Find out what we believe are the best areas of infrastructure are to invest in.
Private vs public companies
There is a trend that companies are staying private for longer and some are no longer considering listing publicly at all. Although in the past it was more difficult for investors to access private companies, this is not the case anymore.
Convertible Bonds
We continue to believe inflation and the associated interest rate hikes are the biggest risks investors will face as we move further into 2022. Read on to find out why convertible bonds should be well placed to outperform other asset classes.
The Ultimate Defensive Investment?
If you don’t hold uranium in your portfolio, you should consider it. Nuclear energy is now deemed green in the EU which can only result in more nuclear power plants; however, the uranium price is too low to justify the opening of new mines.
The newest (at least to me) tech neologism: Proptech
Technological disruption, for a long time, has been the central driver of growth all around the world. Although the real estate sector has not needed to innovate in the past, the emergence of proptech could be a sign that the industry is changing.
2022 Market Outlook
A year of "normalisation"
Read our market outlook for 2022 for our thoughts on what 2022 will look like for a range of asset classes.
Climate Change -Part III
How to Construct a Climate Change Portfolio
This is the third and final part on how to construct a portfolio, positively exposed to climate change. Obviously, investors’ desires and constraints vary widely, which must be kept in mind, but we believe the attached forms a good starting point.
The Many Challenges of Going Green
Temperatures are likely to continue rising well after many net-zero pledges are met unless more radical action is taken to minimise the problem. Find out why this is and how this should impact your portfolio construction.
Climate Change - Part II
How to Invest in Climate Change in Private Markets
Private markets will be at the heart of the climate change investment and impact opportunities. Read on to find out what are the most compelling climate change opportunities in private markets.
Climate Change - Part I
How to Invest in Climate Change in Public Markets
Investors have a unique role to play in the climate crisis and can benefit from the tailwinds of government action and changing consumer sentiment. Find out about the most compelling climate change opportunities in public markets.
Is thorium-fuelled reactors the next big thing?
Thorium is a metal unknown to most people, but it has some interesting characteristics. For example, it appears to be a much better choice than uranium as nuclear fuel, so why hasn’t it displaced uranium? Read on if you want to know why.
Hydrogen (Part II)
A Great Opportunity or Another False Start?
In this second part, I will explain why the true cost of electricity from renewables is much higher than generally perceived, but also why new hydrogen-based technologies could change that. I will also discuss the implications for other energy forms.
Hydrogen (Part I)
The missing piece of the jigsaw?
Not all vehicles can be electrified. Another green fuel is therefore needed. Hydrogen could be the answer to that, but it is not a road without bumps. In this part I, we will review a couple of new technologies which will turn CO2 in to an asset.
The Productivity Conundrum (Part IV of IV)
The Ultimate Solution: Fusion Energy
Investment opportunities rarely come bigger than this. The rewards will be immense, most likely the biggest you will see in your lifetime, which is why it is so important that you read this paper and find room in your portfolio for the opportunity.
The Productivity Conundrum (Part III of IV)
The Power of Digitisation
Digitisation of society is a powerful productivity agent, and the combined rollout of AI, IoT, driverless cars and blockchain could, between them, have a major impact on productivity. Even better, it also presents plenty of investment opportunities.
Cryptocurrency Mania
Is bitcoin a currency, a risk-off asset or …? In this paper, I argue that it doesn’t matter so long as it adds attractive portfolio attributes. That said, this is not an unconditional endorsement. I see many potholes in the road in front of us.
How to invest in water
‘Running Out of Freshwater’ is one of the key associated investment themes identified within our wider ‘Climate Change’ megatrend which we believe will create attractive investment opportunities over time. Find out how to gain exposure to the theme.
To Be or Not to Be?
A note on Responsible Investing
The pandemic has amplified our questioning of the world around us. It is only natural, that as an investor, you should be questioning the environmental and social implications of your investments.
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part V of V)
How we would structure a natural resource portfolio
We have finally arrived at the final part of our paper on natural resource investing, and this one is about how to structure tomorrow’s natural resource portfolio, taking into account the impact of digitisation and of climate change.
A Future of Pedestrian Economic Growth
Why you cannot assume robots will save our bacon
Investors often assume adverse demographics will have only limited effect on GDP growth. The introduction of robots will see to that. We don’t agree. In this paper you can see why.
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part IV of V)
Why investing in natural resources will be a very different proposition in the future
Investing in natural resources shall require a change in strategy, and graphite could turn into the resource of the 21st century. Here is why.
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part III of V)
Why it is impossible to overstate the severity of the pending water crisis
Water is a growing problem. While some countries will suffer from severe scarcity problems in the years to come, other countries are at risk from (literally) drowning in water.
Investing in Natural Resources In a Changing World (Part II of V)
The Fossil Fuel-Free Energy of the Future
With 85% of all the electricity produced around the world every day coming from fossil fuels and with the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere growing incessantly, the world is eager to replace fossil fuels as soon as possible.
Investing in Natural Resources In a Changing World (Part I of V)
Primary Energy
Our natural resources are stressed, because of rising living standards but also because of climate change. Something will have to happen but what?
Credit Dislocation Opportunities in the Midst of the COVID-19 Crisis
There are currently substantial dislocations in the credit markets as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. ARP believes pronounced investment opportunities exist across a number of credit markets.
The Bull Case on Uranium
Uranium is a controversial subject, but I am nevertheless convinced that a very interesting investment opportunity is presenting itself.
The Emerging Opportunity in Shipping
Fundamentals in the shipping industry are about to change profoundly. After having been in a bear market for most of the last decade, shipping prices should improve again almost regardless of overall economic conditions.
Investing in Music Royalties
An investment in music royalties has a number of attractive characteristics, particularly a stable recurring yield, longevity of copyright protection and a low economic beta.
The Productivity Conundrum (Part II of IV)
As fusion energy is still at least 10-15 years away from commercialisation, we will rely on the Digital Revolution to boost productivity at least for another decade or so.
The Productivity Conundrum (Part I of IV)
The implications of slowing productivity growth for many developed countries are serious. In Paper 1, we explore what productivity really is, and how its stagnation will impact the global economy.
TFP vis-à-vis Labour Productivity - why TFP is the best measure of productivity in the digital age
Economists operate with two measures of productivity – labour productivity and total factor productivity. The two are sometimes used more or less interchangeably, seemingly without people realising they are actually quite different.
Beta vis-à-vis Correlation Coefficients - how the two measures differ
Beta and correlation are important indicators for assets, but are often confused with each other.
Regulatory Capital Relief
Regulatory Capital Relief is an investment strategy whereby non-bank investors underwrite losses on portfolios of bank loans, in return for a coupon linked to the bank’s cost of capital.
The Biggest Opportunity of a Lifetime?
A new generation has been ‘born’ - the Selfie Generation - and they continue to have a rather dramatic impact on financial markets, but that is an opportunity for all those not obsessed with taking pictures of themselves.
Investment Rules: Pick your moments to be contrarian
Too often investors, in time of success, like to be considered contrarian. It’s the appeal of being a successful maverick, on hindsight.
Investment Rules: Don’t stick to your principles
Let me give you a very simple example why my investment principles change subject to the environment we are in.
Gold: Hedge, safe-haven or just a malleable mineral?
Considered undisputed by some as to its allure and perceived intrinsic value, gold has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on economic, cultural and environmental values.
A note on Wicksell
A note on Johan Gustaf Knut Wicksell, the most famous Swedish economist of all time.
Passively active risk
The significant flow of funds from active to passive mandates implies a risk that is not widely understood. Passive equity funds pay no attention whatsoever to valuations.
Why bother with profit to make money
These days more and more companies – particularly in the U.S. – are run for volume rather than profit.
Innovation ≠ Productivity
Today’s innovations are not likely to have nearly the same impact on productivity as, say, the car had on the productivity of our parents.
Is the Fed behind the curve? (Part 2)
This is part 2 of the report series: 'Is the Fed behind the curve?'
Does demographics matter to long-term equity returns?
Several studies confirm what we already know intuitively. Middle-aged adults are important drivers of capital market returns.
Is the Fed behind the curve? (Part 1)
Is the US economy booming? If so, is the Federal Reserve Bank falling behind the curve?
Renewable Energy
The IEA recently reported that in 2015, for the first time ever, renewables passed coal as the world’s biggest source of electricity generation, and the rising use of wind and solar is no longer confined to the developed world.
Investing in Secondaries
Investing in secondary opportunities in the alternative space is a growing investment opportunity.
Slowing Global Trade - How it could affect a number of alternative strategies
Global trade is slowing, and as a driver of growth in global GDP, this will have implications on a number of alternative investment strategies.
Agriculture & Water Rights
According to at least one estimate, mankind is facing a formidable challenge in the years to come. Between now and 2050, we will need to produce more food than we have done in the previous 10,000 years put together.
A different approach to asset allocation - how to perform in a low return environment
Are there any inefficiencies in the New Normal that one can take advantage of which will drive returns higher and make a successful outcome more likely?