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ARP+ Insights

Here, our research team sheds light on investment opportunities and strategies, along with sharing our thoughts on current events and developments that have implications for our strategies.

Climate Change - Part I
How to Invest in Climate Change in Public Markets
Investors have a unique role to play in the climate crisis and can benefit from the tailwinds of government action and changing consumer sentiment. Find out about the most compelling climate change opportunities in public markets.
Hydrogen (Part I)
The missing piece of the jigsaw?
Not all vehicles can be electrified. Another green fuel is therefore needed. Hydrogen could be the answer to that, but it is not a road without bumps. In this part I, we will review a couple of new technologies which will turn CO2 in to an asset.
The Productivity Conundrum (Part IV of IV)
The Ultimate Solution: Fusion Energy
Investment opportunities rarely come bigger than this. The rewards will be immense, most likely the biggest you will see in your lifetime, which is why it is so important that you read this paper and find room in your portfolio for the opportunity.
The Productivity Conundrum (Part III of IV)
The Power of Digitisation
Digitisation of society is a powerful productivity agent, and the combined rollout of AI, IoT, driverless cars and blockchain could, between them, have a major impact on productivity. Even better, it also presents plenty of investment opportunities.
Cryptocurrency Mania
Is bitcoin a currency, a risk-off asset or …? In this paper, I argue that it doesn’t matter so long as it adds attractive portfolio attributes. That said, this is not an unconditional endorsement. I see many potholes in the road in front of us.
How to invest in water
‘Running Out of Freshwater’ is one of the key associated investment themes identified within our wider ‘Climate Change’ megatrend which we believe will create attractive investment opportunities over time. Find out how to gain exposure to the theme.
To Be or Not to Be?
A note on Responsible Investing
The pandemic has amplified our questioning of the world around us. It is only natural, that as an investor, you should be questioning the environmental and social implications of your investments.
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part V of V)
How we would structure a natural resource portfolio
We have finally arrived at the final part of our paper on natural resource investing, and this one is about how to structure tomorrow’s natural resource portfolio, taking into account the impact of digitisation and of climate change.
A Future of Pedestrian Economic Growth
Why you cannot assume robots will save our bacon
Investors often assume adverse demographics will have only limited effect on GDP growth. The introduction of robots will see to that. We don’t agree. In this paper you can see why.
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part IV of V)
Why investing in natural resources will be a very different proposition in the future
Investing in natural resources shall require a change in strategy, and graphite could turn into the resource of the 21st century. Here is why.
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part III of V)
Why it is impossible to overstate the severity of the pending water crisis
Water is a growing problem. While some countries will suffer from severe scarcity problems in the years to come, other countries are at risk from (literally) drowning in water.
Investing in Natural Resources In a Changing World (Part II of V)
The Fossil Fuel-Free Energy of the Future
With 85% of all the electricity produced around the world every day coming from fossil fuels and with the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere growing incessantly, the world is eager to replace fossil fuels as soon as possible.
Investing in Natural Resources In a Changing World (Part I of V)
Primary Energy
Our natural resources are stressed, because of rising living standards but also because of climate change. Something will have to happen but what?
Credit Dislocation Opportunities in the Midst of the COVID-19 Crisis
There are currently substantial dislocations in the credit markets as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. ARP believes pronounced investment opportunities exist across a number of credit markets.
The Bull Case on Uranium
Uranium is a controversial subject, but I am nevertheless convinced that a very interesting investment opportunity is presenting itself.
The Emerging Opportunity in Shipping
Fundamentals in the shipping industry are about to change profoundly. After having been in a bear market for most of the last decade, shipping prices should improve again almost regardless of overall economic conditions.
Investing in Music Royalties
An investment in music royalties has a number of attractive characteristics, particularly a stable recurring yield, longevity of copyright protection and a low economic beta.
The Productivity Conundrum (Part II of IV)
As fusion energy is still at least 10-15 years away from commercialisation, we will rely on the Digital Revolution to boost productivity at least for another decade or so.
The Productivity Conundrum (Part I of IV)
The implications of slowing productivity growth for many developed countries are serious. In Paper 1, we explore what productivity really is, and how its stagnation will impact the global economy.
TFP vis-à-vis Labour Productivity - why TFP is the best measure of productivity in the digital age
Economists operate with two measures of productivity – labour productivity and total factor productivity. The two are sometimes used more or less interchangeably, seemingly without people realising they are actually quite different.
Beta vis-à-vis Correlation Coefficients - how the two measures differ
Beta and correlation are important indicators for assets, but are often confused with each other.
Regulatory Capital Relief
Regulatory Capital Relief is an investment strategy whereby non-bank investors underwrite losses on portfolios of bank loans, in return for a coupon linked to the bank’s cost of capital.
The Biggest Opportunity of a Lifetime?
A new generation has been ‘born’ - the Selfie Generation - and they continue to have a rather dramatic impact on financial markets, but that is an opportunity for all those not obsessed with taking pictures of themselves.
Investment Rules: Pick your moments to be contrarian
Too often investors, in time of success, like to be considered contrarian. It’s the appeal of being a successful maverick, on hindsight.
Investment Rules: Don’t stick to your principles
Let me give you a very simple example why my investment principles change subject to the environment we are in.
Gold: Hedge, safe-haven or just a malleable mineral?
Considered undisputed by some as to its allure and perceived intrinsic value, gold has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on economic, cultural and environmental values.
A note on Wicksell
A note on Johan Gustaf Knut Wicksell, the most famous Swedish economist of all time.
Passively active risk
The significant flow of funds from active to passive mandates implies a risk that is not widely understood. Passive equity funds pay no attention whatsoever to valuations.
Why bother with profit to make money
These days more and more companies – particularly in the U.S. – are run for volume rather than profit.
Innovation ≠ Productivity
Today’s innovations are not likely to have nearly the same impact on productivity as, say, the car had on the productivity of our parents.
Is the Fed behind the curve? (Part 2)
This is part 2 of the report series: 'Is the Fed behind the curve?'
Does demographics matter to long-term equity returns?
Several studies confirm what we already know intuitively. Middle-aged adults are important drivers of capital market returns.
Is the Fed behind the curve? (Part 1)
Is the US economy booming? If so, is the Federal Reserve Bank falling behind the curve?
Renewable Energy
The IEA recently reported that in 2015, for the first time ever, renewables passed coal as the world’s biggest source of electricity generation, and the rising use of wind and solar is no longer confined to the developed world.
Investing in Secondaries
Investing in secondary opportunities in the alternative space is a growing investment opportunity.
Slowing Global Trade - How it could affect a number of alternative strategies
Global trade is slowing, and as a driver of growth in global GDP, this will have implications on a number of alternative investment strategies.
Agriculture & Water Rights
According to at least one estimate, mankind is facing a formidable challenge in the years to come. Between now and 2050, we will need to produce more food than we have done in the previous 10,000 years put together.
A different approach to asset allocation - how to perform in a low return environment
Are there any inefficiencies in the New Normal that one can take advantage of which will drive returns higher and make a successful outcome more likely?
A declining workforce and its impact on inflation
We all seem to think that ageing can only lead to lower inflation, all other things being equal, as older people consume considerably less than younger people do. What if we are all wrong?
Why the next bull market in oil is not so straightforward
When the price of oil drops from $115 to under $30 in only 18 months, as Brent oil did between June 2014 and January 2016, and subsequently rises to $45, I can fully understand why a bull market ethos is building.
Thoughts on (dis)inflation
The first two months of 2016 were all about deflation, but that has since changed. In the last four weeks, the word on Wall Street is that inflation is coming back.
The Link … (Part 2)
The second part of the Link between Demographics, Inflation, Consumer Spending and Equity Returns, this paper will look into which investment strategies I expect to be the most rewarding, given the demographic picture laid out in front of us.
The Link between Demographics, Inflation, Consumer Spending and Equity Returns
The purpose of this research paper is to provide more detailed information of how spending patterns change as populations age. This knowledge can hopefully be used to the advantage of our clients when we engage in portfolio construction.
The Real Reasons Why GDP Growth Is Subdued and Will Remain So
China and the aftermath of the financial crisis are the pundits’ two favourite explanations as to why global GDP growth has been relatively sluggish recently.
A Further Update on Oil
This research paper is an extension of the oil paper we wrote back in July (see Paradigm Shifts in Oil dated 14 July 2015); however, the two can be read independently of each other.
The Credit Impulse Explained
We received many inquiries as to what the credit impulse really is, and how the data should be interpreted. This paper will address those issues.
Consumer Brand Licensing
Brand licensing is a rapidly growing industry, with the top 150 licensors accounting for almost $252 billion in global retail sales in 2013.
Natural Gas Dynamics
This research paper is an extension of an earlier research paper on oil (see Paradigm Shifts in Oil, dated 14 July, 2015). Whereas the earlier paper looked at the global oil price outlook, this paper will focus on natural gas prices.
The Credit Impulse Weakens
The research paper will define a relatively new economic term – credit impulse – and explain why it suggests that an economic downturn is around the corner.
Paradigm Shifts in Global Oil Markets
The objective of this research paper is to assess future expected levels of oil price volatility, given the paradigm shifts in the global oil industry, and secondly to evaluate which types of energy strategies that are likely to perform the best.
The Implications of Risk On, Risk Off on Portfolio Construction
The ultimate objective of this research paper is to identify the liquid alternative investment strategies which are most likely to deliver uncorrelated returns vis-à-vis global equities and thus work as an effective diversifier in the near future.
Aviation cyclicality
Whilst widely recognised that the aviation industry in general is a cyclical industry, how cyclical is aircraft leasing?