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ARP+ Insights

Here, our research team sheds light on investment opportunities and strategies, along with sharing our thoughts on current events and developments that have implications for our strategies.

Agriculture & Water Rights
According to at least one estimate, mankind is facing a formidable challenge in the years to come. Between now and 2050, we will need to produce more food than we have done in the previous 10,000 years put together.
A different approach to asset allocation - how to perform in a low return environment
Are there any inefficiencies in the New Normal that one can take advantage of which will drive returns higher and make a successful outcome more likely?
A declining workforce and its impact on inflation
We all seem to think that ageing can only lead to lower inflation, all other things being equal, as older people consume considerably less than younger people do. What if we are all wrong?
Why the next bull market in oil is not so straightforward
When the price of oil drops from $115 to under $30 in only 18 months, as Brent oil did between June 2014 and January 2016, and subsequently rises to $45, I can fully understand why a bull market ethos is building.
Thoughts on (dis)inflation
The first two months of 2016 were all about deflation, but that has since changed. In the last four weeks, the word on Wall Street is that inflation is coming back.
The Link … (Part 2)
The second part of the Link between Demographics, Inflation, Consumer Spending and Equity Returns, this paper will look into which investment strategies I expect to be the most rewarding, given the demographic picture laid out in front of us.
The Link between Demographics, Inflation, Consumer Spending and Equity Returns
The purpose of this research paper is to provide more detailed information of how spending patterns change as populations age. This knowledge can hopefully be used to the advantage of our clients when we engage in portfolio construction.
The Real Reasons Why GDP Growth Is Subdued and Will Remain So
China and the aftermath of the financial crisis are the pundits’ two favourite explanations as to why global GDP growth has been relatively sluggish recently.
A Further Update on Oil
This research paper is an extension of the oil paper we wrote back in July (see Paradigm Shifts in Oil dated 14 July 2015); however, the two can be read independently of each other.
The Credit Impulse Explained
We received many inquiries as to what the credit impulse really is, and how the data should be interpreted. This paper will address those issues.
Consumer Brand Licensing
Brand licensing is a rapidly growing industry, with the top 150 licensors accounting for almost $252 billion in global retail sales in 2013.
Natural Gas Dynamics
This research paper is an extension of an earlier research paper on oil (see Paradigm Shifts in Oil, dated 14 July, 2015). Whereas the earlier paper looked at the global oil price outlook, this paper will focus on natural gas prices.
The Credit Impulse Weakens
The research paper will define a relatively new economic term – credit impulse – and explain why it suggests that an economic downturn is around the corner.
Paradigm Shifts in Global Oil Markets
The objective of this research paper is to assess future expected levels of oil price volatility, given the paradigm shifts in the global oil industry, and secondly to evaluate which types of energy strategies that are likely to perform the best.
The Implications of Risk On, Risk Off on Portfolio Construction
The ultimate objective of this research paper is to identify the liquid alternative investment strategies which are most likely to deliver uncorrelated returns vis-à-vis global equities and thus work as an effective diversifier in the near future.
Aviation cyclicality
Whilst widely recognised that the aviation industry in general is a cyclical industry, how cyclical is aircraft leasing?