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ARP+ Insights

Research
12
April 2024
Out-of-Control Public Deficits
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Worldwide, government debt-to-GDP is now nearly 100%, and governments seem not to care. Should you?
Research
14
March 2024
Demise of the DM Growth Model
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Three megatrends have a negative impact on GDP growth, leading us to expect lower returns than we have enjoyed in recent years.
Research
6
February 2024
Some Thoughts on Productivity Growth
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and the Investment Implications
Productivity growth is falling short of expectations in many countries. When combined with a problematic demographic outlook, it spells little or no economic growth, and you’ll need to approach portfolio construction quite differently.
Research
15
January 2024
Project Ignition
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the Main Risk to the Uranium Bull Story
Uranium has been on an incredible run and it seems like there is no stopping it. But will the development of fusion energy pose a threat to the uranium bull story?
Research
8
November 2023
The Importance of Virtual Water
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There is more to the water story than meets the eye
Water supplies are dwindling, yet more water is used every day. A new approach to water management shall therefore be required.
Research
19
October 2023
The End of the Lithium Bull Market?
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Lithium is the greenest of all green metals and is in great demand, so one wonders why lithium prices are so weak. Read here why.
Research
23
August 2023
Another (Timely) Update on Uranium
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Extreme weather over the summer has raised the red flag, and nuclear energy could end up as the big winner, if our political leaders mean it seriously when they say they want to phase out fossil fuels, but are they serious?
Research
14
August 2023
The End of Indexing?
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We no longer believe investing passively is a winning strategy. What worked so well in the raging bull market of yesteryear is now struggling to beat active investing, and it is all about the type of market we are in. We suggest you read on…
Research
21
July 2023
AI
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Is AI the seventh wonder of the world? Will it effectively address the growing shortage of workers everywhere, or does it spell the end of the human race? However, one thing is given – AI will accelerate the rate of economic growth.
Research
7
June 2023
The Future Belongs to Graphene
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Graphene, a groundbreaking 2D material, promises numerous scientific advancements. Initial breakthroughs include enhancing lithium-ion batteries for significant smartphone and electric car performance improvements. But there's much more to come.
Research
15
May 2023
How DLE will Change the Lithium Industry
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DLE is a new lithium extraction method which will affect the lithium industry dramatically in the years to come. The new technology cannot be adopted by mining companies, though. Therefore, lithium miners could struggle to compete longer term.
Research
21
April 2023
Is It Time to Turn Bullish?
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Our negative views on equities are being moderated, as the ongoing slowdown may actually not turn into a full-blown recession.
Research
14
March 2023
The Future Belongs to Green Hydrogen
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The production of green hydrogen will be ramping up fast over the next few years, particularly in the US. Between green hydrogen and lithium-ion batteries, we are not that many years away from being able to bin fossil fuels completely.
Research
23
February 2023
Why Megatrend Investing is a Winning Formula
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Investing thematically is very different from conventional investing. As a result, you often end up with a portfolio that looks very different, but that is likely to work in your favour over time. Here is why.
Research
7
February 2023
Why Commodities May Defy the Odds in 2023
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Could commodity prices, despite a soft economic outlook, go higher this year? Yes, and I can think of at least five reasons why commodities may perform better than what economic fundamentals in Europe and the US would suggest.
Research
21
December 2022
Why Wealth-to-GDP Must Mean-Revert
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Years of asset price inflation has driven wealth-to-GDP to unsustainable levels, and a drop in wealth is due. There is a macroeconomic reason why that is but, as you will see, there is also a microeconomic reason why wealth-to- GDP is due a reset.
Research
7
December 2022
Cryptocurrencies Unplugged
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Bitcoin is down ca. 75% from its all-time high and almost 50% from the level it was at when we first wrote about cryptocurrencies in early 2021. Is the party truly over, or is this a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pick it up very cheaply?
Research
23
November 2022
The Future of Carbon Capture
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Could a few, new technologies change the climate outlook?
COP27 ended with an agreement, but not one that will do the climate any good. We are therefore dependant on new technologies to fix what appears to be an unfixable problem. Fortunately, a set of new technologies, eg. CCS, CCUS & DAC, are underway.
Research
7
November 2022
The End of the Private Equity Era?
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Why the ongoing regime change will also affect PE returns
PE has returned 14.3% annually over the past 25 years, outperforming pretty much every other asset class. Can that continue?
Research
12
October 2022
The Implications of Declining Wealth-to-GDP
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Wealth has grown faster than GDP for the past 20 years but cannot do so in the long run. Therefore, investment implications are serious, particularly if you are a US investor, as US wealth is more out of line than wealth in the rest of the world.
Research
26
September 2022
Nuclear 2.0 & 3.0
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Fossil fuels will be with us for many years unless we are prepared to expand nuclear. In this paper, I argue why there are many good reasons to do precisely that and how to take advantage from an investment point of view. Read on to learn more.
Research
9
September 2022
Swimming in Troubled Waters
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The mix of freshwater scarcity and rising seawater levels is a great challenge facing society today and desalination is not the solution. In this paper, I will look at more sustainable solutions, and I will assess how you best invest in water.
Research
26
August 2022
From Liquidity to Fundamentals
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Equity investors have benefitted from exceptionally benign liquidity conditions in recent years, but the party is over. Economic fundamentals are taking charge, and you should worry, because a recession is looming and the outlook is dire.
Research
5
August 2022
The Downfall of the Doomsday Prophets
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Why the global population will never reach 10 billion
In this paper, I will argue that fears regarding overpopulation ignore some simple facts which will turn population growth into population decline much earlier than predicted by the UN today, and I will assess the investment implications thereof.
Research
6
July 2022
Update on Investing in Secondaries
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The landscape for investing in private equity secondaries has developed significantly from where it was in November 2016, when we wrote our last paper on the topic. As a result an update on this investment opportunity was due.
Research
13
May 2022
Lithium-Ion Batteries or Hydrogen Fuel Cells?
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Thoughts on How to Play This Theme
As the demand for energy continues to rise globally and governments around the world try to control global warming, the debate between whether lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen energy will prevail is an important one to follow.
Research
7
February 2022
Uranium
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The Ultimate Defensive Investment?
If you don’t hold uranium in your portfolio, you should consider it. Nuclear energy is now deemed green in the EU which can only result in more nuclear power plants; however, the uranium price is too low to justify the opening of new mines.
Research
3
November 2021
The Many Challenges of Going Green
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Temperatures are likely to continue rising well after many net-zero pledges are met unless more radical action is taken to minimise the problem. Find out why this is and how this should impact your portfolio construction.
Research
19
July 2021
Thorium
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Is thorium-fuelled reactors the next big thing?
Thorium is a metal unknown to most people, but it has some interesting characteristics. For example, it appears to be a much better choice than uranium as nuclear fuel, so why hasn’t it displaced uranium? Read on if you want to know why.
Research
21
May 2021
Hydrogen (Part II)
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A Great Opportunity or Another False Start?
In this second part, I will explain why the true cost of electricity from renewables is much higher than generally perceived, but also why new hydrogen-based technologies could change that. I will also discuss the implications for other energy forms.
Research
11
May 2021
Hydrogen (Part I)
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The missing piece of the jigsaw?
Not all vehicles can be electrified. Another green fuel is therefore needed. Hydrogen could be the answer to that, but it is not a road without bumps. In this part I, we will review a couple of new technologies which will turn CO2 in to an asset.
Research
8
April 2021
The Productivity Conundrum (Part IV of IV)
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The Ultimate Solution: Fusion Energy
Investment opportunities rarely come bigger than this. The rewards will be immense, most likely the biggest you will see in your lifetime, which is why it is so important that you read this paper and find room in your portfolio for the opportunity.
Research
16
March 2021
The Productivity Conundrum (Part III of IV)
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The Power of Digitisation
Digitisation of society is a powerful productivity agent, and the combined rollout of AI, IoT, driverless cars and blockchain could, between them, have a major impact on productivity. Even better, it also presents plenty of investment opportunities.
Research
22
January 2021
Cryptocurrency Mania
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Is bitcoin a currency, a risk-off asset or …? In this paper, I argue that it doesn’t matter so long as it adds attractive portfolio attributes. That said, this is not an unconditional endorsement. I see many potholes in the road in front of us.
Research
3
November 2020
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part V of V)
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How we would structure a natural resource portfolio
We have finally arrived at the final part of our paper on natural resource investing, and this one is about how to structure tomorrow’s natural resource portfolio, taking into account the impact of digitisation and of climate change.
Research
10
September 2020
A Future of Pedestrian Economic Growth
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Why you cannot assume robots will save our bacon
Investors often assume adverse demographics will have only limited effect on GDP growth. The introduction of robots will see to that. We don’t agree. In this paper you can see why.
Research
26
August 2020
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part IV of V)
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Why investing in natural resources will be a very different proposition in the future
Investing in natural resources shall require a change in strategy, and graphite could turn into the resource of the 21st century. Here is why.
Research
3
August 2020
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part III of V)
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Why it is impossible to overstate the severity of the pending water crisis
Water is a growing problem. While some countries will suffer from severe scarcity problems in the years to come, other countries are at risk from (literally) drowning in water.
Research
7
July 2020
Investing in Natural Resources In a Changing World (Part II of V)
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The Fossil Fuel-Free Energy of the Future
With 85% of all the electricity produced around the world every day coming from fossil fuels and with the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere growing incessantly, the world is eager to replace fossil fuels as soon as possible.
Research
23
June 2020
Investing in Natural Resources In a Changing World (Part I of V)
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Primary Energy
Our natural resources are stressed, because of rising living standards but also because of climate change. Something will have to happen but what?
Research
18
March 2020
The Bull Case on Uranium
–
Uranium is a controversial subject, but I am nevertheless convinced that a very interesting investment opportunity is presenting itself.
Research
11
February 2020
The Emerging Opportunity in Shipping
–
Fundamentals in the shipping industry are about to change profoundly. After having been in a bear market for most of the last decade, shipping prices should improve again almost regardless of overall economic conditions.
Research
10
October 2019
The Productivity Conundrum (Part II of IV)
–
As fusion energy is still at least 10-15 years away from commercialisation, we will rely on the Digital Revolution to boost productivity at least for another decade or so.
Research
8
October 2019
The Productivity Conundrum (Part I of IV)
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The implications of slowing productivity growth for many developed countries are serious. In Paper 1, we explore what productivity really is, and how its stagnation will impact the global economy.
Research
8
October 2019
TFP vis-à-vis Labour Productivity - why TFP is the best measure of productivity in the digital age
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Economists operate with two measures of productivity – labour productivity and total factor productivity. The two are sometimes used more or less interchangeably, seemingly without people realising they are actually quite different.
Research
13
September 2019
Beta vis-à-vis Correlation Coefficients - how the two measures differ
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Beta and correlation are important indicators for assets, but are often confused with each other.
Research
27
November 2018
The Biggest Opportunity of a Lifetime?
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A new generation has been ‘born’ - the Selfie Generation - and they continue to have a rather dramatic impact on financial markets, but that is an opportunity for all those not obsessed with taking pictures of themselves.
Research
21
April 2017
Gold: Hedge, safe-haven or just a malleable mineral?
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Considered undisputed by some as to its allure and perceived intrinsic value, gold has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on economic, cultural and environmental values.
Research
29
March 2017
A note on Wicksell
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A note on Johan Gustaf Knut Wicksell, the most famous Swedish economist of all time.
Research
20
January 2017
Is the Fed behind the curve? (Part 2)
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This is part 2 of the report series: 'Is the Fed behind the curve?'
Research
11
January 2017
Is the Fed behind the curve? (Part 1)
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Is the US economy booming? If so, is the Federal Reserve Bank falling behind the curve?
Research
22
November 2016
Renewable Energy
–
The IEA recently reported that in 2015, for the first time ever, renewables passed coal as the world’s biggest source of electricity generation, and the rising use of wind and solar is no longer confined to the developed world.
Research
23
September 2016
Slowing Global Trade - How it could affect a number of alternative strategies
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Global trade is slowing, and as a driver of growth in global GDP, this will have implications on a number of alternative investment strategies.
Research
7
September 2016
Agriculture & Water Rights
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According to at least one estimate, mankind is facing a formidable challenge in the years to come. Between now and 2050, we will need to produce more food than we have done in the previous 10,000 years put together.
Research
6
June 2016
A different approach to asset allocation - how to perform in a low return environment
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Are there any inefficiencies in the New Normal that one can take advantage of which will drive returns higher and make a successful outcome more likely?
Research
11
May 2016
A declining workforce and its impact on inflation
–
We all seem to think that ageing can only lead to lower inflation, all other things being equal, as older people consume considerably less than younger people do. What if we are all wrong?
Research
25
April 2016
Why the next bull market in oil is not so straightforward
–
When the price of oil drops from $115 to under $30 in only 18 months, as Brent oil did between June 2014 and January 2016, and subsequently rises to $45, I can fully understand why a bull market ethos is building.
Research
30
March 2016
Thoughts on (dis)inflation
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The first two months of 2016 were all about deflation, but that has since changed. In the last four weeks, the word on Wall Street is that inflation is coming back.
Research
10
February 2016
The Link … (Part 2)
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The second part of the Link between Demographics, Inflation, Consumer Spending and Equity Returns, this paper will look into which investment strategies I expect to be the most rewarding, given the demographic picture laid out in front of us.
Research
12
January 2016
The Link between Demographics, Inflation, Consumer Spending and Equity Returns
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The purpose of this research paper is to provide more detailed information of how spending patterns change as populations age. This knowledge can hopefully be used to the advantage of our clients when we engage in portfolio construction.
Research
4
November 2015
The Real Reasons Why GDP Growth Is Subdued and Will Remain So
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China and the aftermath of the financial crisis are the pundits’ two favourite explanations as to why global GDP growth has been relatively sluggish recently.
Research
6
October 2015
A Further Update on Oil
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This research paper is an extension of the oil paper we wrote back in July (see Paradigm Shifts in Oil dated 14 July 2015); however, the two can be read independently of each other.
Research
4
September 2015
The Credit Impulse Explained
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We received many inquiries as to what the credit impulse really is, and how the data should be interpreted. This paper will address those issues.
Research
21
August 2015
Consumer Brand Licensing
–
Brand licensing is a rapidly growing industry, with the top 150 licensors accounting for almost $252 billion in global retail sales in 2013.
Research
5
August 2015
Natural Gas Dynamics
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This research paper is an extension of an earlier research paper on oil (see Paradigm Shifts in Oil, dated 14 July, 2015). Whereas the earlier paper looked at the global oil price outlook, this paper will focus on natural gas prices.
Research
31
July 2015
The Credit Impulse Weakens
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The research paper will define a relatively new economic term – credit impulse – and explain why it suggests that an economic downturn is around the corner.
Research
14
July 2015
Paradigm Shifts in Global Oil Markets
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The objective of this research paper is to assess future expected levels of oil price volatility, given the paradigm shifts in the global oil industry, and secondly to evaluate which types of energy strategies that are likely to perform the best.
Research
24
June 2015
The Implications of Risk On, Risk Off on Portfolio Construction
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The ultimate objective of this research paper is to identify the liquid alternative investment strategies which are most likely to deliver uncorrelated returns vis-à-vis global equities and thus work as an effective diversifier in the near future.
Research
4
June 2015
Aviation cyclicality
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Whilst widely recognised that the aviation industry in general is a cyclical industry, how cyclical is aircraft leasing?